Shares in tungsten-exposed stocks led gains on the ASX this morning as China imposed a new round of export controls on five more critical minerals: tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium, and molybdenum, as well as their related products.
Only one of Australia's two tungsten miners, EQ Resources, is currently trading up 62%. The other, Group 6 Metals, is suspended pending a recapitalisation to resolve crippling debts.
EQ operates the Mt Carbine mine in Queensland and the Saloro mine in Spain and has links to the US and refining assets in Vietnam. Group 6 operates the Dolphin mine on King Island, Tasmania, which needs a plant upgrade for which the funding may just have become easier.
Both stand to benefit immediately from China's plans to use its market dominance to restrict sales of the key military metal.
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While less advanced, Tungsten Mining shares were also up around 42% this morning. The company owns the Hatches Creek project in the Northern Territory and the Mt Mulgine project that contain both tungsten and molybdenum.
A maiden resource for Hatches Creek is pending.
Opportunities amid the chaos
The projects could be a medium-term source of new tungsten supply during the term of US president Donald Trump if he continues his obsession with tariffs and what Rupert Murdoch's Wall Street Journal editorial board has called the "dumbest trade war in history".
Trump flip-flopped on tariffs with the US' two largest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, over the weekend but pushed ahead with additional restrictions on China, sparking a response from Beijing.
China has not pulled its punches, again using its dominance in the supply of critical metals in the same way it upended flows of gallium, germanium, and antimony over the past two years.
Australian companies are well-placed to participate in any reshaping of the global metals market, where it is again obvious that outsourcing to China comes with increased risks.
Past actions by China sparked renewed interest in Australian antimony, gallium and germanium, and if history repeats, ASX-listed explorers with even a sniff of tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium, or molybdenum will be dusting off reports right now.
Molybdenum options
Australia produces limited molybdenum today, only as a by-product of Newmont's copper-gold porphyry mining at Cadia in the Lachlan Fold Belt since the closure of Spinifex Ringe, but there are several explorers with known discoveries, including Investigator Resources at Molyhil in the Northern Territory and Caravel Minerals within its large, undeveloped namesake copper project in WA.
Augustus Minerals is trying to locate a large high-grade molybdenum deposit at Ti-Tree in WA's Gascoyne, Alma Metals has a copper-molybdenum resource at Briggs in Queensland, and there are numerous copper explorers with molybdenum, especially those looking at South America such as Culpeo Minerals.
Global production of molybdenum is around 300,000 tonnes per annum, primarily destined for the steel industry, with China dominating around 40% of supplies.
ASX indium exposure is far more limited. Iltani Resources has defined indium at Orient in Queensland, American West Metals owns the 23.8Moz West Desert deposit in Utah, which is said to be the only indium resource in the US, and MTM Critical Metals believes its Flash Joule Heating technology can be a source of the metal.
Tellurium, bismuth MIA in Oz
Australia produces no tellurium or bismuth today.
Some Australian volcanic-hosted massive sulphide deposits have significant tellurium potential, but it has not been fully assessed, while bismuth was recovered from historical mining at Tennant Creek in the NT, and it is expected to be a by-product at Castille Resources' proposed Rover 1 underground mine, where there is some 4900t of bismuth amid the gold, silver, copper and cobalt.
Elementos recently noted the presence of bismuth and molybdenum within the fluorite zone, below the historical Cleveland tin mine in Tasmania.
No end to geopolitical strife
China's commerce ministry described its new rules as being implemented to "safeguard national security interests".
While not a complete ban, exports will decrease significantly in the immediate future while Chinese companies seek export licences, which will leave customers that did not prepare scrambling for new sources.
The pain will be acute in the US, which has relied on imports for tungsten since 2015 and bismuth since 1997. US companies, if they are able to obtain import licenses from Chinese sources, will need to pay more due to tariffs and supply-driven price rises.
NATO added aluminium, beryllium, cobalt, gallium, germanium, graphite, lithium, manganese, platinum, rare earth elements, titanium and tungsten to its critical weapons minerals list earlier this month.
China's controls started overnight. Additional retaliatory tariffs on coal, LNG, oil and machinery will come into effect next week.