ESG

Metals have further to fall: Citi

Bank recommends caution over the coming weeks

This article is 5 years old. Images might not display.

MiningNews.net is making some of its most important coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic freely available to readers. For more coverage, please see our COVID-19 hub. To subscribe to MiningNews.net, click here.

It recommended caution over the coming weeks.

Citi believes copper will fall as low as US$5300 per tonne, a level not seen since late 2016, while nickel will drop to $12,000/t, the lowest since mid-2019.

Copper is currently trading at $5655/t, while nickel is at $12,836/t.

Citi sees palladium pulling back from about $2500 an ounce now to $2100/oz, and iron ore dropping $20 to $70/t.

Analysts said year-on-year growth in China would be weak, resulting in larger than anticipated inventory builds during the June quarter.

"Surplus inventories are set to build more sharply than many expect over the coming weeks as the true extent of the underlying consumption weakness is revealed by an end to involuntary supply chain stocking globally," Citi said.

Also of note was the expected sharp increases in coronavirus cases in Europe and the US over the coming weeks, which could result in a demand shock outside China.

"European economic activity was already weak coming in to 2020 and the US consumer has been carrying the US economy for some time, so shocks to either of these would affect risk assets, resulting in CTA short and potentially China short positioning."

Citi said the scale of Chinese stimulus to date would not be enough to stimulate a rebound in global growth.

"For those looking towards 2021, such as consumers and deep-value investors, we find that copper and nickel may be worth considering adding to during the upcoming price weakness," Citi said.

"This is based on screening which metals are trading cheaply relative to their cost curve in the context of their long run price to cost relationships, and with respect to our 2021 forecasts."

The bank remains bullish on gold.

Expert-led Insights reports and Analytics tools built on robust data, rigorous analysis and expert commentary covering mining Risk, Projects, ESG, Leadership, and Investor Sentiment.

Expert-led Insights reports and Analytics tools built on robust data, rigorous analysis and expert commentary covering mining Risk, Projects, ESG, Leadership, and Investor Sentiment.

editions

World Risk Insights 2025 (feat. MineHutte ratings)

A detailed analysis of mining investment risks across 120 jurisdictions globally, assessed across six risk categories and an industrywide survey.

editions

ESG Index 2025: Benchmarking the Future of Sustainable Mining

The ESG Index provides an in-depth evaluation of the ESG performance of 60+ of the world’s largest mining companies. It assesses companies across 10 weighted indicators within 6 essential ESG pillars.

editions

Leadership Insights 2025

Leadership Insights reveals key trends in priority mining issues through interviews with 15+ top mining company executives and an industrywide survey.

editions

Mining IQ Risk Analytics

Risk Analytics offers interactive access to World Risk Insight data, allowing you to customise risk views, benchmark jurisdictions, explore data behind scores and read expert commentary to guide your decision-making.