DRYBLOWER

Dryblower on South32 paying to get out of Africa

Investing in Africa has always seemed a stupid thing to do, according to Dryblower

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Technically, South32 did not pay on the way into the South African coal industry. Credit for that decision lies with BHP, the miner which created South32 as a dumping ground for its unwanted assets acquired in the 2001 merger with South Africa's Billiton.

But there is no doubt that South32 is now paying to quit the South African coal business by agreeing to token compensation for the assets while also providing US$200 million for future mine rehabilitation work, as well as acting as guarantor for loans to the new owner of the mines.

Jokes are told about deals like that and apart from highlighting the desperation of South32 to get out of South African coal it also adds to a depressing list of other troubled African adventures by Australian miners trying to do business in the hopeless continent.

There is, for regular readers, nothing new in Blower's African rants which can be traced back to his first visit there more than 35 years ago when it was obvious to all but the willfully blind that the entire continent was a capital sink - the money went in, but it never come out.

In a curious way that discovery was not long after the Eagles topped music charts with their classic song Hotel California that includes the unforgettable lines about being able to "check out any time you like, but you can never leave".

What just happened to South32, which has been trying to sell its South African coal assets since late 2019, comes after:

  • Shareholders in Resolute Mining discovered last month that a mining lease on the Bibiani gold project had been unilaterally cancelled by the government of Ghana.
  • Sundance Resources was stripped of half its Mbalam Nabeda iron ore project by the government of the Republic of Congo.
  • Canada's B2Gold was told by the government of Mali that a valuable exploration licence 20km from its Fekola mine would not be granted, and
  • Northern Mozambique became the latest hotbed of African Islamist violence with workers killed and the development of a giant gas project suspended.

Those recent events, which are costing investors dearly, follow countless other financial and humanitarian disasters in virtually every African country, except perhaps Botswana and Namibia.

Countries which one year appear attractive to foreign investors can become disaster zones a year later.

Barrick Gold thought it was onto a good thing in Tanzania, until it wasn't, and Rio Tinto though Guinea looked good for the Simandou iron ore project, until it was squeezed by a corrupt government.

Some of the events in Africa are marketed as being in the best interests of the locals who have suffered for years from a combination incompetent government and rapacious international investors that go back to the days of European colonisers.

It's in those roots that the concept of black economic empowerment (BEE) developed as a way of righting past wrongs.

Unfortunately, like so many social welfare experiments (and BEE is nothing more than a giant social welfare experiment) the end result is never quite what was planned, simply creating a different way for the locals to be defrauded.

If in doubt, consider the way in which corrupt politicians, from President Zuma down, teamed up with the Gupta brothers to "capture" the government of South Africa, enriching themselves outrageously while leaving townships without power and water.

The first time Blower saw BEE at work was soon after the model of empowering South Africa's black majority surfaced in what sounded to some people like a wonderful way of uplifting poor people and to others as guaranteed way of stifling investment and creating a perfect environment for dodgy deals.

In time, perhaps BEE will work but the signs are not good and when natural investors in South Africa's mining industry, such as South32, are prepared to pay a penalty to get out of the country it sends a powerful message - don't get involved in the first place.

A variation of not going to Africa is the continued exodus of capital and skills from the continent.

A few weeks ago, it was suggested that two of the great names of South African mining, Gold Fields and AngloGold, should merge with Sibanye-Stillwater to create a world-beating South African mining company.

Really! Doesn't anyone in South African understand that AngloGold has already left South Africa and Gold Fields is far more successful today in Australia than South Africa.

South32's coal exit compounds a trend which has been underway for decades and which is possibly even accelerating as the cost of doing business in Africa exceeds are possible benefits.

And that's before the indignity of paying to get out.

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