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Stocks to Watch: March

SOUTH32 details and gold sector activity are some of the things MiningNewsPremium will be looking...

Kristie Batten

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BHP Billiton is set to release the details of its South32 demerger, with documentation expected to be mailed to shareholders by mid-month ahead of a shareholder vote in May and an expected listing in June.

“[The demerger] is absolutely on track,” BHP CEO Andrew Mackenzie said last week.

“It is the key enabler and differentiator, among many, that makes us a rather special company.”

UBS has a net asset value of $US12 billion ($A15.4 billion) for South32 and the company’s proposed assets posted earnings before interest and tax of $887 million for the December half, above expectations.

Aluminium accounted for around 50% of EBIT, but UBS noted the positive outlooks for nickel and silver in the current half, with the Cannington silver mine and Cerro Matoso nickel mine already showing improvements in the December half.

Morningstar has a preliminary estimate of $A1.50-2 for South32 shares.

Things are heating up in the gold space with a surprise bidding war for Tanami Gold’ Central Tanami project in the Northern Territory between aggressive acquirers Northern Star Resources and Metals X.

Metals X announced a deal last month which was backed by Tanami, but a similar, but higher, offer from Northern Star last week has won the backing of the Tanami board.

Saracen Mineral Holdings is set to release the development plans for its Thunderbox project, acquired about a year ago.

Macquarie is expecting a combined open pit and underground operation to produce as much as 160,000 ounces of gold per annum over a 10-year mine life.

Analysts expect a fall in cash costs at Saracen’s Carosue Dam operations this year should generate sufficient cashflow to bring Thunderbox into production.

Also in gold, hype over Sirius Resources’ Baloo gold discovery is building and there is set to be more results throughout the month after the company released the first diamond drill results this morning.

Sirius has drilled 311 aircore holes, but has only received assays for 182 holes, while results for the second diamond hole are also pending, but due later this week.

The company is also due to award the contract for the processing plant for its $443 million Nova nickel-copper mine this month.

After releasing an updated resource for the Nebo-Babel deposits last week, Cassini Resources is due to release a scoping study this month.

Hartleys analyst Mike Millikan has forecast a 4 million tonnes per annum operation with an eight-year mine life for capital costs of $400-500 million.

“Our modelling suggests that the West Musgrave project is economic at consensus prices but may not be practical in the current low nickel price environment,” he said last week.

It will also be a busy month on the events front with the Global Iron & Steel Forecast Conference on next week in Perth, featuring speakers from many of the world's majors.

Mines and Money Hong Kong will take place later in the month with keynote presenters including Fortescue Metals Group CEO Nev Power, Evolution Mining executive chairman Jake Klein and Ivanhoe Mines founder Robert Friedland.

The event will also incorporate the Asian Mining Awards, where Hancock Prospecting chair Gina Rinehart will be the guest speaker.

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