The London-based company now believes that about 74% of manganese mining and 48% of managanese-ferro-alloy production in the western world comes under the control of Samancor, Eramet, CVRD and Assmang.
The domination of the sector has been hallmarked in recent years by a number of major buyouts – in 1998-99 Samancor acquired the manganese assets of BHP in Australia and last year Eramet mopped up the assets of Elkem in Norway and the United States.
In its latest report called “The Economics of Manganese”, Roskill says there is glut of supply throughout the world that continues to keep pricing soft. It says this overhang of supply is likely to cap any major new manganese mining project developments out to the medium term.
“Any increases in production are likely to come mainly from the rehabilitation of the Ukranian mining industry, and efforts by Chinese producers to increase domestic supplies of high-grade metallurgical ore,” Roskill said.
World production of manganese ore and concentrates in gross weight terms fell from 26 million tonnes in 1990 to 18Mt in 1998 as a result of production declines from the Ukraine, Autsralia, Brazil and India. Preliminary estimates for 1999 show a 3.7% decline to 17.2Mt.
Since manganese is present in virtually all types of steel, production of crude steel is the single most important factor in the demand for manganese. The steel industry accounts for about 90% of world demand for manganese. Carbon steel is the principal market, accounting for between 65% and 70%.
Roskilll says that world output of crude steel is expected to be over 810Mt in 2000 representing a 3.9% jump on last year.
“This would result in an increase in the market for manganese from about 4.4Mt in 1998 to over 5Mt in 2001, assuming no further decline in unit consumption,” Roskill said.
“Steel production is forecast to increase by an average of 1.8%pa up to 2005, and growth in manganese demand is expected to reflect this at a slightly slower rate.”
