BASE METALS

Fitch cuts base metals forecasts

Forecasts are still higher than current prices

This article is 2 years old. Images might not display.

The ratings agency trimmed its copper price forecast for 2023 to US$8600/t, from $8800/t.

Copper is currently sitting at just above $8400/t.

Fitch said the cut reflected "weaker year-to-date pricing due to softer economic sentiment".

"We forecast moderate global refined copper consumption growth in 2023, matched by rising mines production after some disruptions in early 2023," Fitch said.

The ratings agency maintained a copper price forecast of $8000 for 2024 and 2025, and lifted its 2026 forecast to $7500, from $7000.

"The increased 2026 assumption incorporates solid medium-term demand growth, supported by the energy transition and our expectations that the market will remain tightly balanced," Fitch said.

Fitch also cut its 2023 price outlook for a number of other base metals, citing the weak macroeconomic environment.

Zinc was forecast for 2023 at $2700/t, down $300 from the previous forecast, but above $350 above current prices. Aluminium was forecast at $2400, down $100. The 2023 nickel forecast was unchanged, at $22,000/t.

But Fitch lifted its gold price forecast for 2023 to $1800 per ounce, from $1700, and boosted its 2026 price forecast to $1500, from $1300.

"Our higher 2026 and mid-cycle prices are supported by the metal's investment status, which will help to rebase prices at more elevated levels than at previous mid-cycles," Fitch said.

Expert-led Insights reports and Analytics tools built on robust data, rigorous analysis and expert commentary covering mining Risk, Projects, ESG, Leadership, and Investor Sentiment.

Expert-led Insights reports and Analytics tools built on robust data, rigorous analysis and expert commentary covering mining Risk, Projects, ESG, Leadership, and Investor Sentiment.

editions

Investor Sentiment Insights 2026

Discover what investors have planned for mining in 2026 in our industry-leading survey

editions

World Risk Insights 2025 (feat. MineHutte ratings)

A detailed analysis of mining investment risks across 120 jurisdictions globally, assessed across six risk categories and an industrywide survey.

editions

ESG Index 2025: Benchmarking the Future of Sustainable Mining

The ESG Index provides an in-depth evaluation of the ESG performance of 60+ of the world’s largest mining companies. It assesses companies across 10 weighted indicators within 6 essential ESG pillars.

editions

Leadership Insights 2025

Leadership Insights reveals key trends in priority mining issues through interviews with 15+ top mining company executives and an industrywide survey.