BASE METALS

South32 within striking distance of guidance despite challenges

Record year at Worsley Alumina

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The company achieved the result deposit weather impacts and lower labour availability.

Worsley Alumina in Western Australia achieved record production and beat full-year guidance, while Cannington in Queensland beat previously upgraded FY22 zinc equivalent guidance by 2%.

Cerro Matoso in Colombia achieved a 22% increase in payable nickel production, despite unplanned maintenance and weather-related disruptions impacting the operation.

South Africa Manganese delivered record production in the June 2022 quarter.

South32 expects unit costs to be in line with revised guidance at "the majority" of operations.

Full-year pricing was generally much higher.

The company benefitted from a 231% increase in the average metallurgical coal price to US$381 per tonne.

Alumina pricing was up 40% year-year-year to more than $400/t, while aluminium prices were up 48-52%.

Base metals and manganese prices also rose.

"Our teams delivered another strong operating performance in the June quarter, despite challenges that included extreme weather, supply chain disruptions and reduced labour availability caused by the COVID-19 pandemic," South32 CEO Graham Kerr said.

"Record annual production at Worsley Alumina, along with record quarterly production at South Africa Manganese and a strong sales result in June, capturing the benefit of high prices, capped another year of substantial progress for South32."

South32 had $233 million remaining to be returned to shareholders as part of its capital management program.

RBC Capital Markets expected $150 million to be given back as a special dividend in next month's full-year results, based on the assumption of a 12c final dividend and 8-9c special dividend.

"Our strong financial position and capital management framework, which is designed to reward our shareholders as our financial performance improves, supported further returns across the year via our on-market share buy-back, bringing total returns under our capital management program to $1.9 billion since its inception," Kerr said.

RBC maintained an outperform rating and A$5 price target for South32.

"S32 is currently trading at a less than 2x one-year EV/EBITDA and at an elevated discount to diversified peers, below historical averages of 5x and 0.6-0.8x, respectively," analyst Kaan Peker said.

"This is despite strong free cashflow, EBITDA growth and a materially improved portfolio and commodity mix."

Shares in South32 were up 2.5% to $3.62. The stock traded as high as $5.44 earlier this year.

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