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The reason for the view is that prices are the furthest from costs.
Citi has downgraded its short-term price for zinc by US$300 to $3000 per tonne.
"By October-December however, if it becomes clear that Europe will not build enough gas stocks to make it through this winter, zinc output cuts may drive a spike in prices during 4Q22 and 1Q23," it said.
Analyst said nickel was also far from its cost curve and expected it to drop to $20,000-22,000/t by the end of the year.
Citi said if global growth continued to weaken in the next 3-6 months, zinc and nickel likely had the furthest to fall in percentage terms, and aluminium the least.
"Aluminium prices are already digging into the cost curve, and we see it being relatively resilient given rising coal costs globally, and likely in China in the near-term."
Citi expects copper marginal costs to rise to $7800-8000/t during the second half of the year, with the recent price decline expected to tighten scrap supply.
