BASE METALS

Fitch cuts base metals forecasts

FITCH Ratings is bearish on copper, citing weak economic sentiment in the short term, and rising mine production in the longer term.

Fitch cuts base metals forecasts

The ratings agency trimmed its copper price forecast for 2023 to US$8600/t, from $8800/t.

Copper is currently sitting at just above $8400/t.

Fitch said the cut reflected "weaker year-to-date pricing due to softer economic sentiment".

"We forecast moderate global refined copper consumption growth in 2023, matched by rising mines production after some disruptions in early 2023," Fitch said.

The ratings agency maintained a copper price forecast of $8000 for 2024 and 2025, and lifted its 2026 forecast to $7500, from $7000.

"The increased 2026 assumption incorporates solid medium-term demand growth, supported by the energy transition and our expectations that the market will remain tightly balanced," Fitch said.

Fitch also cut its 2023 price outlook for a number of other base metals, citing the weak macroeconomic environment.

Zinc was forecast for 2023 at $2700/t, down $300 from the previous forecast, but above $350 above current prices. Aluminium was forecast at $2400, down $100. The 2023 nickel forecast was unchanged, at $22,000/t.

But Fitch lifted its gold price forecast for 2023 to $1800 per ounce, from $1700, and boosted its 2026 price forecast to $1500, from $1300.

"Our higher 2026 and mid-cycle prices are supported by the metal's investment status, which will help to rebase prices at more elevated levels than at previous mid-cycles," Fitch said.

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