Output is forecast to lift 5.5% to just shy of 114 million ounces and jump a further 3% in 2024 to 124.1Moz, driven by a spike in output at mines in the US, Canada, Indonesia and Peru.
By 2024, the four nations will account for 25.3Moz of output or 20% of total global production - up from 20.1Moz this year.
"Key projects expected to commence operations during the forecast period include the Turquoise Ridge underground expansion project in the US, which is currently undergoing construction. With an annual gold production capacity of 500,000oz, the project is expected to be commissioned in late-2022," GlobalData associate project manager said.
Gold Fields' Salares Norte project in Chile - currently under construction with start-up scheduled for 2023 will also be a contributor of the projected uplift in gold supply, with an estimated capacity of 450,000oz.
The World Gold Council also concurs with GlobalData's bullish forecast, predicting higher gold supply and less COVID-19-related stoppages at mines this year following the implementation of onsite protocols in 2020.
Gold production fell 5.2% year-on-year in 2020 to 108 million ounces, with six of the world's top 10 gold producers recording an average 8.4% fall versus 2019 including TSX-listed Barrick Gold (-12.3%), Newcrest Mining (-15%), and Agnico Eagle Mines (-8.4%).
Kirkland Lake Gold defied the trend and surged 48% last year, following the acquisition of one of Canada's most productive mines - the Detour Lake project in January - which produced 516,757 ounces last year. China's Zijin Mining Group also defied the downturn, rising almost 6%.
Australian miners avoided the downturn with output rising by over 4% last year to 12Moz.
"Unlike other key producers, Australian gold miners remained largely unaffected by the outbreak, as stringent measures were adopted by the government to contain the outbreak enabling minimal disruptions to mining activities," according to Bajaj.