RBC cuts long-term uranium price forecast

RBC Capital Markets has lowered its long-term uranium price from US$65 per pound to $50/lb.
RBC cuts long-term uranium price forecast RBC cuts long-term uranium price forecast RBC cuts long-term uranium price forecast RBC cuts long-term uranium price forecast RBC cuts long-term uranium price forecast

Staff Reporter

Points made with regards its incentive price curve included a "relatively high" internal rate of return of 30% being seen as appropriate given investors "will likely want to be compensated" for historically volatile uranium prices, permitting difficulties, and construction challenges.

RBC also pointed out all projects on its curve, aside from restarts, require permitting, and that many projects arearly stages and unproven.

It further noted many medium sized projects in the middle of the curve are restarts of projects with a history of cost and technical challenges. 

In the interim, RBC's expectations for the next five years or so won't exactly please the bulls ether.

"We expect prices to increase gradually through mid-2020s into the $35-40/lb range, from circa-$30/lb currently, supported by the uranium cost curve," RBC said.

"As the market moves into deficit (in the late 2020s), we expect prices to increase more significantly and forecast a long-term uranium price at $50/lb, which we view as the necessary incentive price for new mine supply."