PRECIOUS METALS

Bank forecasts $2200/oz gold for next year

US investment bank Jefferies expects gold prices to average US$2200/oz in 2021 on the back of low interest rates and the possibility of further weakness in the US dollar.

Staff reporter
US investment bank Jefferies sees gold prices rising further in 2021

US investment bank Jefferies sees gold prices rising further in 2021

Jefferies has increased its forecasts for both gold and silver in the near to mid-term.

The bank upped its forecast for average third quarter gold prices by 5.5% to $1925/oz, and for 2020 as a whole by 5.7% to $1843/oz. The bank said it expected prices to strengthen further into the New Year.

"Interest rates are expected to remain a supportive factor in the medium term, with the view the Fed will keep rates near zero through 2022," said Jefferies.

The bank noted that over the past 12 months, the correlation between the gold price and the inverse of the US 10-year real rate has been a 0.98, "well above an already strong historical correlation of 0.75".

While the bank was bullish on the yellow metal out to 2021, it acknowledged a further recovery in global growth "would likely be a negative for gold and is one reason why we forecast a decline in the gold price after 2021".

The bank forecast an average price of $2000/oz in 2022.

Jefferies said its favourite gold major was Newmont, "followed closely by Barrick". However, it said better value was to be had in copper mining equities, especially Freeport and First Quantum.

Jefferies also tweaked its silver forecasts upwards, increasing its expected average third quarter prices by 31.6% to $25/oz, and for 2021 by 50% to $30/oz.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining News Intelligence team.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining News Intelligence team.

editions

MiningNews.net Research Report 2024

Access a multi-pronged tool to identify critical risks and opportunities in Australia’s mining industry.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Investor Sentiment Report 2024

Survey revealing the plans, priorities, and preferences of 120+ mining investors and their expectations for the sector in 2024.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Mining Equities Report 2023

Access an exclusive, inside look on the quarterly mining IPOs and secondary raisings data and mining equities performance tables with an annual Stock Exchange Comparisons supplement.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence World Risk Report 2023 (feat. MineHutte ratings)

A detailed analysis of mining investment risks across 121 jurisdictions globally, built on 11 ‘hard risk’ metrics and an industrywide survey.