Gold out of the blocks early

GOLD had a good year in 2017, rising by 12.4%. What will 2018 bring for the yellow shiny stuff?
Gold out of the blocks early Gold out of the blocks early Gold out of the blocks early Gold out of the blocks early Gold out of the blocks early

Kristie Batten

The gold price started 2017 off at US1158.80 – its low for the year – and closed at $1302.80 on Friday, averaging $1258.80 over the 12-month period.

Gold has made a strong start to 2018, sitting at $1320/oz this morning, a three-month high.

Where do analysts see gold going in 2018?

RBC Capital Markets is tipping a flat outlook for gold with an average price of $1300/oz.

It said downsides included improving economies and rising rates, but saw upside potential given the systemic risks associated with economic and geopolitical environments.

“Investment demand for gold appears to be improving as investors are looking to gold for portfolio insurance to broader market contractions (in addition to cryptocurrencies),” RBC said.

“We would also note that in 2017 we have seen a gold price trend with ‘higher lows’, which is reminiscent of 2005 to mid-2007 period, ahead of the sub-prime crisis, when investors began to accumulate physical gold as systemic risks rose in the US housing market.”

S&P Global Ratings is forecasting gold to average $1250/oz this year and next, while Deutsche Bank’s 2018 outlook is similar at $1248/oz.

While UBS tips an average gold price of $1285/oz this year, it has a neutral outlook.

“The 2018 outlook for gold has deteriorated in our view,” it said in late December.

“With rising US rates and an improving global growth trajectory, we believe gold could struggle.”

Martin Place Securities head of research and gold bull Barry Dawes said gold was poised for a stronger 2018, while the long-term outlook was looking “just brilliant”

The ASX All Ordinaries gold index rose over 5000 points this morning for the first time since December 2016 and Dawes believes it will test the 2011 high of 8499 by the September quarter.

Northern Star Resources hit an all-time high of A$6.30 this morning.

Regis Resources reached a five-year high of $4.44.

Evolution Mining, Dacian Gold and Saracen Mineral Holdings all fetched prices not seen since around mid-2016.

RBC’s preferred gold picks are Saracen and Dacian, while UBS likes Alacer Gold, Evolution and Northern Star.