Shanghai Metals Market analyst Ian Roper told the London Metals Exchange seminar in London the upcoming winter shutdowns would hit supply more than demand for iron ore and aluminium.
He forecast a 46% cut to steel capacity over winter, compared to 24% last year, and a 23% cut to domestic iron ore mining, compared to 18% in 2017.
Roper said the hit to aluminium capacity would be only slightly higher than last year, at 31.9%.
His take was the demand-side regulations would be less severe because of concerns over China's general economic health.
"We lost a lot of demand [last year] … we had a blanket ban on construction, we had a very tight regulations around things like trucking, so people couldn't move things around," he said.
"So we exite...