Speaking at the RIU Explorers Conference in Fremantle, ANZ’s senior commodity economist Daniel Hynes suggested the macro indicators out of China including infrastructure spending and lowering of the housing inventories were showing a positive trend on the demand front for base metals.
Regarding the housing market, should the de-stocking trend continue, a “very good platform” for commodities in 2018 could be in place.
However, a current key risk to the situation in China is the money supply indicator, with some tightening seen and Hynes saying a close eye needed to be on the meeting in the next few weeks of the National People Congress.
In essence, if the Congress reduces the target for money supply, that means confirmation of tightening occurring – a negative economic indicator for commodities.
Hynes sees iron ore as looking fully priced at current levels above $US90 per tonne, while regarding gold, Hynes pointed to global political uncertainty indicators that normally closely correlate with the gold price currently showing the price of bullion should have some upside.
The caveat in all of this however is that as with Patersons’ equity analyst Rob Brierley’s comments earlier at the conference, forecasting commodity prices is a “mug's game".
Still, the crystal ball is a looking a little “less cloudy” at the moment, according to Hynes.
